The MEDIGAP option covers 64 percent of the elderly aged 67 and over by 2016-20 reflecting the present proclivity of the elderly to purchase medicare supplemental policies. Since even a one-year policy would probably double the cost of existing medigap policies, the percentage of elderly likely to choose this additional coverage would be less than our assumption.

The policy aimed at younger people, YOUNGINS, has a relatively high coverage of 63 percent of the elderly 65 and over. This reflects the somewhat lower premiums for persons who bought some coverage before age 65. Even beginning at younger age groups, however, many people would have to pay more than 1 percent of their income to buy any long-term care insurance.

The PENSIONS option covers 41 percent of the elderly aged 65 and over, slightly fewer people than LOWBEN. This moderate coverage reflects the fact that many elderly do not have pensions or that some pensions are too low to pay for long-term care insurance. Another restriction is that coverage is provided to individuals, not families, with pensions.